Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 0.019010 0.021563 0.024337 0.027579 0.031265 0.035327 0.040146
2025-05-11 0.014704 0.018134 0.022192 0.027352 0.033746 0.041425 0.051366
2025-05-18 0.012426 0.016220 0.020972 0.027370 0.035784 0.046497 0.061226
2025-05-25 0.010665 0.014579 0.019714 0.026963 0.036966 0.050334 0.069642
2025-06-01 0.009600 0.013659 0.019205 0.027361 0.039101 0.055466 0.080149
2025-06-08 0.008566 0.012630 0.018384 0.027162 0.040281 0.059270 0.089047
2025-06-15 0.007986 0.012166 0.018285 0.027937 0.042873 0.065260 0.101651
2025-06-22 0.007060 0.011079 0.017139 0.026996 0.042738 0.067093 0.108003
2025-06-29 0.006408 0.010338 0.016435 0.026638 0.043425 0.070185 0.116548
2025-07-06 0.005725 0.009478 0.015454 0.025726 0.043101 0.071582 0.122378
2025-07-13 0.005496 0.009331 0.015594 0.026648 0.045860 0.078229 0.137628
2025-07-20 0.005240 0.009111 0.015590 0.027312 0.048218 0.084373 0.152548
2025-07-27 0.005015 0.008932 0.015650 0.028114 0.050931 0.091444 0.169972
2025-08-03 0.004638 0.008454 0.015150 0.027874 0.051757 0.095246 0.181793
2025-08-10 0.004341 0.008088 0.014814 0.027893 0.053042 0.099967 0.195768
2025-08-17 0.004012 0.007634 0.014276 0.027478 0.053455 0.103067 0.206860
2025-08-24 0.003823 0.007426 0.014175 0.027884 0.055477 0.109405 0.224990
2025-08-31 0.003575 0.007082 0.013783 0.027681 0.056266 0.113374 0.238637
2025-09-07 0.003463 0.006998 0.013886 0.028471 0.059126 0.121734 0.262277
2025-09-14 0.003168 0.006517 0.013165 0.027511 0.058272 0.122382 0.269405
2025-09-21 0.002961 0.006200 0.012748 0.027147 0.058634 0.125587 0.282419
2025-09-28 0.002715 0.005783 0.012092 0.026217 0.057688 0.125903 0.288953
2025-10-05 0.002665 0.005777 0.012293 0.027157 0.060936 0.135637 0.318025